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Methods and models for the analysis of domino effect in the process industry

Keywords: Industrial Safety, Major Accident Hazard, Quantitative Risk Assessment, Domino Effect, Escalation

Domino effect was responsible of several catastrophic accidents. Escalation of primary accidental scenarios triggering domino effect have caused extremely severe accidental events in the chemical and process industry. As a matter of facts, severe accidents may arise from the escalation of primary events to trigger secondary scenarios. Hence, the identification of possible escalation events is required in the safety assessment of sites where relevant quantities of hazardous substances are stored or handled. In the European Union, the "Seveso-II" Directive (96/82/EC) requires the assessment of on-site and off-site possible escalation scenarios in sites falling under the obligations of the Directive.

The present study aims to the development of a general  methodology and of support tools for the quantitative assessment of risk due to domino effect. A set of models for the calculation of equipment damage probability is developed and combined to improved criteria for the calculation of threshold values for equipment damage. A specific effort is dedicated to the improvement of models for the calculation of equipment damage probability due to jet and pool fires. In this framework, experimental studies are carried out to assess the performance of fireproofing materials used to delay the heat-up of vessels involved by fire. Experimental results are coupled to finite element models to obtain a detailed model for the prediction of time to failure. These results will be coupled to a layer of protection assessment of mitigation systems, in order to calculate the expected probability of successful mitigation with respect to the escalation scenarios.

The improved vulnerability models were applied to the calculation of the contribution of escalation scenarios to the overall industrial risk due to major accident hazard. The “domino package” of the Aripar-GIS software was upgraded to allow its use for risk recomposition accounting for the contribution of domino effect. The set of tools developed allows the quantitative assessment of domino effect in complex lay-outs and extended industrial areas.

Main publications

Antonioni, G., Spadoni, G., Cozzani, V. (2009). Application of Domino Effect Quantitative Risk Assessment to an Extended Industrial Area. Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industry vol.19, pp. 463-477.

Bonvicini, S., Ganapini, S., Spadoni, G., Cozzani, V. (2012). The description of population vulnerability in Quantitative Risk Analysis. Risk Analysis vol. 32, p.1576

Cozzani, V., Gubinelli, G., Antonioni, G., Spadoni, G., Zanelli, S. (2005). The assessment of risk caused by domino effect in quantitative area risk analysis. J. Haz. Mat. vol.127, p.14.

Cozzani, V., Gubinelli, G., Salzano, E. (2006). Escalation thresholds in the assessment of domino accidental events. Journal of Hazardous Materials vol.129, pp.1-21.

Cozzani, V., Antonioni, G., Spadoni, G., (2006). Quantitative assessment of domino scenarios by a GIS-based software tool. J. Loss Prev. Proc. Ind. vol.19, p.463.

Cozzani, V., Salzano, E., (2004). The quantitative assessment of domino effect caused by overpressure. Part I: probit models. J. Haz.Mat. vol. 107, p.67.

Di Padova, A., Tugnoli, A., Cozzani, V., Barbaresi, T., Tallone, F. (2011). Identification of fireproofing zones in Oil&Gas facilities by a risk-based procedure. Journal of Hazardous Materials vol. 191, p.83

Egidi, D., Foraboschi, F.P., Spadoni, G., Amendola, A., (1995). The ARIPAR project: an analysis of the major accident risks connected with industrial and trasnportation activities in the Ravenna area. Reliability Eng. System Safety vol.49, p.75.

Gomez-Mares, M., Tugnoli, A., Landucci, G., Cozzani, V. (2012). Performance Assessment of Passive Fire Protection Materials. Industrial and Engineering Chemistry Research vol.51, p.7679

Gubinelli, G., Zanelli, S., Cozzani, V., (2004). A simplified model for the assessment of the impact probability of fragments. J. Haz.Mat., vol.116, p.175.

Gubinelli, G., & Cozzani, V. (2009). Assessment of Missile Hazard: Reference Fragmentation Patterns of Process Equipment. J. Haz.Mat., vol.163 pp.1008-1018.

Gubinelli, G., & Cozzani, V. (2009b). Assessment of Missile Hazard: Evaluation of Fragment Number and Drag Factors. J. Haz.Mat., vol.161, pp.439-449

Landucci, G., Gubinelli, G., Antonioni, G., Cozzani, V. (2009). The assessment of the damage probability of storage tanks in domino events. Accident Analysis and Prevention vol. 41, pp.1206-1215.

Reniers, G.L.L., Cozzani, V. (2013). Domino effects in the process industries: Modeling, Prevention and Managing. Elsevier, London (UK).

Spadoni, G., Egidi, D., Contini, S. (2000). Through ARIPAR-GIS the quantified area risk analysis supports land-use planning activities. J. Haz.Mat. vol.71, p.423.

Spadoni, G., Contini, S., Uguccioni, G. (2003). The New Version of ARIPAR and the Benefits Given in Assessing and Managing Major Risks in Industrialised Areas. Proc. Safety Env. Protection vol.81, p.19.

Research projects

ERGO Project - Value at risk of oil barrel - Convenzione Eni Exploration & Production - DICMA (2012-2014)

TOSCA - Total Operation Management for Safety Critical Activities. European Commission, 7th Framework Programme - Nanoscience, Nanotechnologies, Materials and New Production Technologies (2013-2015).